confidence held steady in the three months to end-May 2018, according to
Moore Stephens’ latest Shipping Confidence Survey.
confidence level was unchanged at the four-year high of 6.4 out of 10.0
recorded in February 2018. Confidence on the part of owners was also
sustained at a four-year high, of 6.6, while managers’ confidence was up from
6.4 to 6.7.
for charterers was up to 6.7 from 5.0 and confidence in the broking sector was
up from 6.1 to 6.3. The survey was launched in May 2008 with an overall rating
for all respondents of 6.8.
Stephens said that the likelihood of respondents making a major investment
or significant development over the next 12 months was down on the previous
survey from 5.5 to 5.2 out of a maximum possible score of 10.0.
was highest among charterers, followed by owners (down from 5.9 to 5.5),
managers (down from 5.6 to 5.4) and brokers (down from 4.0 to 3.5).
of respondents expecting higher freight rates in both the tanker and container
ship sectors was up, from 39% to 50% and from 38% to 43% respectively. In the
dry bulk trades, such expectations were unchanged at 54%.
“We first launched the survey in 2008 just months before the Lehman
Brothers bankruptcy which was to trigger a protracted global financial
recession. Shipping markets were buoyant at the time, with an average
confidence level of 6.8 out 10.0.”
“Ten years is a long time in shipping, and the past decade has
doubtless felt a lot longer still to those industry participants who have lived
through it, even those inured to the peculiar cyclicality of the industry.
Confidence may have fluctuated, but it has never collapsed, and portents for
the coming decade can reasonably be expected to be better,” Moore Stephens concluded.