for the global shipping sector for the next 12 months remains stable on the
back of expected supply-demand improvements in the dry bulk and container
shipping segments and overall sector earnings growth of 4%-5%, according to
ratings agency Moody’s.
the outlook for the tanker segment is negative as supply remains high and
charter rates low.
“Demand will slightly outstrip supply in the dry bulk segment, while
supply and demand are likely to be pretty evenly matched in the container
shipping segment. This combined with our expectation of 4%-5% organic earnings
growth in the next 12 months underpin our stable outlook on the global shipping
sector, despite continued oversupply in the tanker segment,” Maria Maslovsky, Vice President –
Senior Analyst at Moody’s, said.
“Recent US tariff announcements targeting steel and aluminium imports
from certain countries and potential retaliatory action pose downside risks to
the global shipping sector,” Maslovsky
In the dry
bulk segment, over the last 12-months to April 2018, the size of the global
dry-bulk fleet grew by just 1%, a positive for the segment. Moody’s expects
that demand will outstrip supply by about 1% in 2018. Charter rates have
improved, but the rating agency expects them to remain volatile.
container shipping segment, broad macroeconomic growth coupled with trade
growth will support demand. However, high supply growth, especially in the
first half of 2018, “will likely
prevent material further increases in freight rates.”
tanker segment, significant new deliveries will continue in 2018 after a surge
in supply in 2017, with crude tankers representing the lion’s share. Moody’s
said that the industry will take time to absorb these deliveries so charter
rates “are likely to stay low
over the coming 12 months.”