International Monetary Fund, IMF reaffirmed 9 May 2018 that India will be the
fastest-growing major economy in 2018, with a growth rate of 7(point) 4 per
cent that rises to 7(point)8 per cent in 2019 with medium-term prospects
The IMF's Asia and Pacific Regional Economic Outlook report said that India was
recovering from the effects of demonetisation and the introduction of the Goods
and Services Tax.
It said the recovery is expected to be underpinned by a rebound from transitory
shocks as well as robust private consumption.
The report said, Medium-term consumer price index inflation is forecast to
remain within but closer to the upper bound of the Reserve Bank of India's
inflation-targeting band of four per cent with a plus or minus two per cent
It said, the consumer price increase in 2017 was 3.6 per cent and projected it
to be five per cent in 2018 and 2019. Overall, the report said that Asia
continues to be both the fastest-growing region in the world and the main
engine of the world's economy.
The report said that US President Donald
Trump's fiscal stimulus is expected to support Asia's exports and investment.
The Asian region's growth rate was expected
to be 5.6 percent for 2018 and 2019.
However, in the medium term the report said
that "downside risks dominate" for the region and these include a
tightening of global financial conditions, a shift toward protectionist
policies, and an increase in geopolitical tensions.
Because of these uncertainties the IMF urged
the countries in the region to follow conservative policies "aimed at
building buffers and increasing resilience" and push ahead with structural
"While mobile payments are expanding sharply in
such economies as Bangladesh, India, and the Philippines, on average Asia is
lagging sub-Saharan Africa," the IMF said, adding that the region should
take steps to ensure it is able to reap the full benefits of increasing
digitalisation in the global economy.